There were plenty of talking points to come out of Easter Road last weekend. Was it a penalty? Should Vicko have seen red? Should Kucherenko have tried to punch the ball? Will he be dropped next week?
In truth, none of these questions seem to matter much. "Gorgeous Jim" looks about as likely to drop Yevhen Kucherenko as Dan McFarlane is to change his mind about awarding a penalty. After the match, Goodwin was clear: “Kucherenko has been outstanding since he came to the club.” He even went as far as blaming himself for the second goal, admitting it was a result of asking his players to play out from the back.
But has this approach really been worth it? Let’s take a closer look at the numbers.
When United’s number one gets the ball — either in space or in his hands — one of three things usually happens:
He or one of the back three sends it long.
United try to play out from the back.
Despite what many might think, across the first four SPL games, the long ball is still the go-to option. United go long 70.2% of the time Kucherenko gains possession. From these, nine situations have led to United opportunities to score, and only once has a long ball led directly to a chance for the opposition.
On the other hand, when United try to play out from the back — whether through a quick throw or by passing short — the picture is different. Just as with long balls, United have also created nine chances when they have chosen this route. However, the opposition have created five chances from these situations.
So, while playing out from the back has made games more exciting, it’s also left United more vulnerable. Last season’s success was built on defensive solidity, and the comparison is stark: eight goals conceded this year compared to just three at the same stage last season.
One tweak that could help would be cutting out Kucherenko’s quick throws. He’s attempted six so far in the SPL; two have ended with opposition chances, while only one has led to a tangerine opportunity. It’s a high-risk, low-reward gamble. Yet for now, Goodwin seems unlikely to ditch the tactic.
Of course, not all of United’s problems stem from playing out. Defending set pieces has been shaky at best. Ross Graham’s return could bring some stability, though that’s still weeks away. In the meantime, is it time for Sam Cleall-Harding to get a chance? Goodwin’s reluctance last season suggests he may stick with Lovu, even after some questionable performances.
For all the tactical talk, sometimes the answer is simple. United don’t need to overthink it...